Bitcoin demand has stabilized in recent months, but stronger growth will be needed for a potential price rally in the fourth quarter, according to a report by CryptoQuant.
The report emphasized that although demand showed consistent increases in September, this increase alone may not be enough to push Bitcoin prices higher.
CryptoQuant calculates Bitcoin’s apparent demand as the difference between the daily Bitcoin block subsidy and the daily change in the amount of BTC that has remained unchanged for a year or more. Since July, this demand has fluctuated, ranging from a net loss of 23,000 Bitcoin per month to a gain of 69,000. September saw less volatility and demand grew steadily, but the report noted that this growth was not as significant as it was at the beginning of the year.
“For comparison, Bitcoin’s apparent demand increased by as much as 496,000 in April, when prices were approaching $70,000,” the analysts explained, suggesting that demand still has “a lot of room to grow” in the final quarter of 2024.
The report also noted that Bitcoin holders’ behavior at the beginning of 2024 follows patterns seen in previous halving cycles, such as 2016 and 2020. Earlier in the year, long-term holders sold Bitcoin to new buyers, fueling demand growth. However, this trend slowed down during the summer months.
“If historical trends repeat, we could see continued demand growth, potentially leading to a surge in near-term supply,” analysts predicted.
One promising area of strength has been US spot Bitcoin ETFs. They switched from net selling to net buying in September, with 7,000 Bitcoins purchased on September 30, the highest daily volume since July. The report noted that ETFs are set to purchase around 9,000 Bitcoins per day in the first quarter of 2024, contributing to the increase in prices.
*This is not investment advice.
