Markus Thielen, a well-known research analyst at cryptocurrency analysis firm 10x Research, recently expressed his concerns regarding the current state of the crypto market. According to Thielen, bearish signals are appearing in the market and are likely to push prices down in the short term.
Thielen, who has accurately predicted numerous bull and bear rallies in the crypto market, currently sees no catalysts that could push prices back up. “We no longer have the typical drivers that push prices from $40,000 to $70,000,” he said.
He added that the main reason behind this was spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen little to no new inflows over the past few weeks as investors put the initial enthusiasm of the January launch behind them. “It seems like most traditional financial investors are no longer interested,” Thielen said.
But Thielen argues that both the slowing of flows into ETFs and the recent sell-off in crypto assets are the result of a much larger event. The analyst believes that the macro environment is and will continue to be the main driving force behind prices.
“I think a lot of the Bitcoin rally was perhaps built on false expectations,” Thielen said. “I think what's really important is that these ETF flows didn't stop all of a sudden, they stopped around March 12 when the consumer price index and the producer price index were released.”
Thielen suggests the market needs to get macro challenges out of the way. For now, it expects a period of consolidation that could last several weeks and could send Bitcoin lower to around $50,000 before rebounding towards the end of the year.
Thielen also warned investors about the upcoming halving on April 20, which many assumed would be a wildly bullish event for Bitcoin. This expectation stems from previous post-halving cycles where BTC often reached all-time highs.
However, Thielen claimed that these bull moves were largely a result of the positive macro environment and were not driven by the halving itself. The most recent halving in May 2020, for example, came with massive monetary and fiscal stimulus surrounding Covid shutdowns, according to the analyst.
“I would give almost no credit to the halving because I don't think the halving is a big driver,” he said, adding: “It's the big macro factors that really matter.”
*This is not investment advice.
